The Greens have received a surge of support in a new poll, with the party nearly doubling its vote since April and nudging the left bloc into a position to govern if an election was held on Wednesday.
By Lillian Hanly of RNZ
The latest Talbot Mills poll, commissioned by Anacta and seen by RNZ, shows the Green Party on 13% – up four percentage points since May. In April, the party was at 7%.
Talbot Mills is the traditional pollster for the Labour Party. The poll has Labour on 34%, down two points since May. National is steady on 29%, as it has been for the past three months.
New Zealand First has dropped two points since May and is now at 12%, just below the Greens.
ACT dropped one point, sitting just above the 5% threshold to make it back into Parliament at 6%. It is expected the party will win an electorate seat and safely make it back into Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori is at 2.6%, up from 2.2% in May, and the Opportunity Party is on 3.3%, up from 2.8%.
On these numbers, the coalition parties would receive 47% support. Using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat calculator, that results in 59 seats – not enough to govern.
The left bloc would receive 49% support, or 61 seats, just enough to form a government.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins remains ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister, but only by a point. Hipkins is on 21%, down from 23% in May and 26% in March.
Luxon remains steady on 20 , where he has sat since April. Winston Peters has dropped three points to 14%.
The poll also showed more voters disapprove of the coalition government – 51% – compared to 42% approval.
The poll was taken between June 1-10 and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
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