Several sitting National MPs may well be out of Parliament based on preliminary results.
By Nik Dirga for RNZ
Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee are all list-only candidates, and with National tipped to win more than 40 electorate seats, that means no candidates who are list-only would return to Parliament.
They were all placed high on the party list to give them the best shot of returning to Parliament, but the party vote in preliminary counts has dropped dramatically from the 2023 result of 38% to under 30%, meaning the list candidates may entirely miss out.
Goldsmith looks set to lose the race for the Epsom electorate to incumbent MP and ACT Party leader David Seymour.
Speaking to 1News he said on current results as of nearly 11pm - which have Seymour on 37.1% and Goldsmith on 30.5% with more than 70% of the vote counted - he has "closed the gap considerably, but not good enough".
"We gave it a good shot," he said but "it is the nature of MMP.
"It looks like by some way or other the centre-right will be able to hold on.
"That's the most important thing from my perspective.
"I think we gave it our best shot; it's an agitated world and people are feeling still fairly grumpy and [there's been] a lot of confusion sowed by the so-called strategic voting which I don't think helped."
However he added, "I think we still might be able to form a government."
National MP and Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee told RNZ it is close to certain now that he won't be back in Parliament.
Brownlee cited the vote-splitting campaign played an important factor in tonight's result.
An overhang means that Parliament could expand by 10 or more seats to accommodate National winning more electorate seats than its party vote. It's keeping the proportionality of Parliament while also respecting the wishes of voters in local electorates.
Who may be on the way out?
Nicola Willis
Willis stands at second on the National list after Christopher Luxon. She is the Minister of Finance, Minister for Economic Growth and Minister for Social Investment.
Willis announced in December she would not stand for an electorate seat.
At the last election, Willis campaigned for the Wellington electorate of Ōhāriu, which was narrowly won by Labour's Greg O'Connor with 17,565 votes to Willis' 16,305. That electorate has since been split into two new seats.
Chris Bishop
Ranked third on the list, Bishop has been the MP for Hutt South but is locked in a tight battle with Labour's Ginny Andersen, who was ahead by about 1000 votes with nearly 90% of the vote counted.
He may yet make it back to Parliament but it will depend on the official results, a few weeks away. Bishop is the Attorney-General, Minister of Housing, Minister for Infrastructure, Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Minister of Transport, and Associate Minister of Finance.
Paul Goldsmith
At sixth on the list, Goldsmith stood against ACT Party leader David Seymour in the Epsom electorate.
With over 50% of the vote in, Seymour holds around a 1500-vote lead as of 10pm.
Goldsmith holds multiple portfolios in the coalition government, including Minister of Justice, Minister of Defence, Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage, Minister of Defence, Minister for Media and Communications, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations and other portfolios.
Gerry Brownlee
Brownlee is the longest continuously serving member of Parliament.
Ninth on the list and standing as list only, Brownlee is the Parliamentary Speaker.
He ran list only in 2023, having formerly represented the Christchurch Ilam electorate since 1996.
He has also been Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defence. 1News reported that Brownlee said he was eyeing up retirement and that "I've got no regrets whatsoever".
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